GenCast

Probabilistic weather forecasting using diffusion models at 0.25° resolution. Outperformed ECMWF ENS on 97.2% of targets (99.8% at >36h lead times). Generates ensemble of 50+ predictions per forecast for uncertainty quantification.

Generates 15-day global forecasts in 8 minutes. Successor to GraphCast, adding probabilistic predictions critical for extreme weather and renewable energy planning. Nature 2024. By Price, Sanchez-Gonzalez et al. (DeepMind).